What is really driving the market, the macro backdrop, the news that matters, what to watch next — and what it means for your portfolio. One page, read daily.
Over the last month Value, Low volatility and Market led while High beta, Momentum and Credit lagged. 2 of 7 style premia were positive. Risk appetite reads 23/100 (where the high-beta, credit, small-cap and low-volatility premia sit against their own history). The S&P 500 returned +1.1% and the 10-year yield moved −0.21 pp to 5.04%.
From the headlines — Fed pause amid earnings volatility and oil dip. The Federal Reserve kept the policy rate steady at 3.88%, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.99% and the VIX eased to 17.52, reflecting modest risk appetite. At the same time, mixed corporate earnings and a pullback in oil prices are shaping market direction.
Stance: the premia (risk appetite ≥ 60 risk-on, ≤ 40 risk-off) and the AI reading of the headlines; when they disagree the regime is mixed.
Long/short premia of index ETFs over the last month, with the percentile of each against its own history since 2015.
| Factor | 1M | 3M | 1Y | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarketS&P 500 total return | +1.1%P42.0 | +4.4%P51.0 | +13.9%P40.0 | risingsince 2026-04-14 |
| SizeSmall caps minus large caps | −0.2%P52.0 | −7.7%P9.0 | −0.1%P69.0 | fallingsince 2026-09-09 |
| ValueValue minus growth | +5.6%P95.0 | −1.8%P53.0 | +21.7%P98.0 | fallingsince 2026-10-26 |
| MomentumRecent winners minus the market | −5.2%P3.0 | −2.4%P24.0 | +5.1%P67.0 | fallingsince 2026-10-28 |
| Low volatilityLow-volatility stocks minus the market | +4.1%P97.0 | +1.0%P71.0 | −4.5%P50.0 | risingsince 2026-10-28 |
| QualityHigh-quality stocks minus the market | −1.1%P12.0 | −2.4%P9.0 | −1.7%P51.0 | fallingsince 2026-10-21 |
| High betaHigh-beta stocks minus the market | −5.6%P5.0 | −0.5%P46.0 | +11.9%P80.0 | fallingsince 2026-10-28 |
| RatesChange in the 10-year Treasury yield | −0.21 ppP13.0 | +0.38 ppP81.0 | +1.05 ppP88.0 | risingsince 2026-08-20 |
| CreditHigh yield minus investment grade | −1.3%P15.0 | −0.0%P39.0 | +4.7%P68.0 | fallingsince 2026-10-22 |
Sectors versus the S&P 500, 1 month. Leading: Energy (+10.2%), Utilities (+5.9%), Consumer Staples (+5.0%). Lagging: Communication Services (−8.5%), Technology (−2.9%), Industrials (−1.4%). Dispersion 5.1%.
Recent inflexions. Size turned negative 2026-10-06.
Factor Monitor: every horizon, inflexion points, correlations, the masterclass →
Latest readings; the projection is the Economics Explorer's one-step forecast of each indicator's next print.
| Indicator | Latest | 3-month change | Year over year | Trend | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effective Federal Funds Rate2026-10-27 | 3.88% | +0.25 pp | −0.24 pp | rising | ▲ 3.972026-10-31 |
| 10Y Treasury Yield2026-10-27 | 4.99% | +0.34 pp | +0.98 pp | rising | → 4.992026-10-31 |
| 10Y minus 2Y Treasury2026-10-28 | +0.38 pp | +0.03 pp | −0.14 pp | rising | → 0.382026-10-31 |
| CPI (All Urban Consumers)2026-09-01 | 3.72% | +0.25 pp | – | rising | – |
| Core PCE Price Index2026-08-01 | 3.01% | −0.15 pp | – | rising | → 3.002026-09-01 |
| Unemployment Rate2026-09-01 | 4.20% | 0.00 pp | −0.20 pp | stable | → 4.202026-10-01 |
| Nonfarm Payrolls2026-09-01 | +29k | – | – | rising | ▲ 121.182026-10-01 |
| VIX Index2026-10-27 | 17.52 | −1.15 pp | +1.73 pp | falling | → 17.522026-10-31 |
| S&P 500 Index2026-10-28 | 7744 | +4.2% | +12.4% | rising | → 7743.982026-10-31 |
| WTI Crude Oil Spot Price2026-10-27 | $103.37 | +22.7% | +66.4% | rising | → 103.372026-10-31 |
| Trade Weighted US Dollar Index2026-10-23 | 121.32 | +0.3% | +0.3% | rising | → 121.322026-10-31 |
| Moody's Baa Corporate Yield2026-10-26 | 6.45% | +0.19 pp | +0.81 pp | rising | → 6.452026-10-31 |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich)2026-09-01 | 48.10 | −2.8% | −12.7% | falling | → 48.102026-10-01 |
| Housing Starts2026-09-01 | 1221 | −15.1% | −7.4% | falling | ▲ 1261.332026-10-01 |
AI briefing over 120 headlines from 8 sources.
The Federal Reserve left the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.88% and signaled a focus on balance‑sheet issues for next year. Traders saw Treasury yields edge higher and the VIX dip modestly after the announcement.
The steady‑rate stance supports credit‑sensitive assets but higher yields at 4.99% add pressure to equities, especially rate‑sensitive sectors.
Alphabet’s stock plunged after a revenue miss and unchanged 2026 capex, while Samsung Electronics shares slid despite a record profit. Microsoft reported strong cloud growth but lower capital spending, and Google’s search revenue slowdown deepened cash burn.
Weak earnings from major tech names pressure growth‑oriented stocks and could dampen momentum in the broader technology sector, even as the 10‑year yield sits at 4.99%.
Oil prices fell as peace hopes offset Middle East conflict concerns, and EU energy ministers prepared for soaring fuel costs ahead of winter. A cruise line cited soaring fuel costs as a reason to restructure operations.
Lower WTI at $103.37 reduces cost pressures for airlines and transportation firms but may hurt upstream energy stocks, while the 10‑year Treasury yield at 4.99% keeps financing costs elevated.
Microsoft’s cloud revenue surged, boosting its profit, while Nvidia’s large AI‑related acquisition attracted DOJ scrutiny. Companies highlighted strong cash flow and reduced AI spending worries.
Robust cloud growth supports technology valuations, and the stable inflation rate of 3.72% keeps real‑rate considerations favorable for high‑growth firms.
Lumentum’s stock rose on news of a potential sale to Marvell, while DoorDash is in talks to acquire Instacart and Wendy’s received a $1.4 billion take‑private offer from a Trian‑led group. Marvell is also in advanced talks to buy Lumentum.
These deals could consolidate market share in optics, food delivery, and consumer retail, influencing sector dynamics as the 10‑year yield remains at 4.99% and credit spreads stay elevated.
Every style exposure of the book against the month's premium, its sector tilts against sector leadership, and an estimate of what those exposures contributed.
Signals, companies, plans: answered from live data.
I read AI Stock Finder's daily model signals, company data and your account to answer in seconds, in your language.